Brewers vs. Orioles Free MLB Pick & Breakdown

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MLB Logo Baseball Field

It took some time, but I’m finally here to start delivering daily MLB game picks.

I was hit with a serious case of COVID upon the outset of the 2022 MLB season, and took me this long to get my mind and body right and get back to work. I couldn’t be happier or more grateful to be doing so.

That being said, let’s get started on the right note with a Brewers vs. Orioles MLB Pick from Baltimore!

Brewers vs. Orioles Betting Odds

*Odds courtesy of BetOnline

Teams
Moneyline
Run Line
Total

Brewers
-172
-1.5 (-112)
Over 8 (-110)

Orioles
+158
+1.5 (-108)
Under 8 (-110)

Starting Pitching Preview

Brewers – Corbin Burnes (R) 1 GS, 0-0, 5.40 ERA/5.85 FIP

The Brewers will give the ball to their ace for the second time this season as reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes looks to bounce back after a subpar result on Opening Day in Chicago against the Cubs.

Burnes lasted just five innings while allowing three runs on four hits including a homer his first time out, but what’s more is he walked three hitters in that one. If you’ll recall, Burnes struck out an MLB-record 58 hitters before issuing his first walk of the season in 2021 and finished the season with an elite 1.83 BB/9, good for third in baseball among qualified pitchers.

In earning his first career Cy Young last season, Burnes turned in a dominant 2.43 ERA across 28 starts, but also led all of baseball with a 1.63 FIPP, 1.99 xERA, 0.38 HR/9 and an eye-popping 12.61 K/9. Burnes struck out four Cubs in those five frames his first time out.

Corbin Burnes, K’ing the Side. 🔥

And, glove slap. pic.twitter.com/193mqiNsyg

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 7, 2022

It took Burnes 83 pitches to get through five innings his last time out, but it’s a fairly same assumption we’re in for a better version of Burnes in this one tonight.

Orioles – John Means (L) 1 GS, 0-0, 2.25 ERA/1.30 FIP

It’s ace versus ace in this one as the O’s send left-hander John Means to the bump after he enjoyed a nice start to his 2022 season.

Means took the ball on Opening Day and turned in four innings of one-run ball, yielding six hits but just one walk while punching out five as part of a no decision against the Tampa Bay Rays. Means threw 56 of his 84 pitches for strikes while yielding zero barrels and an 88.1 averahe exit velocity in that one.

Means’ 2021 season was a nice bounce-back campaign as he posted a 3.62 ERA after working to a 4.53 mark in the shortened 2020 season, but as has been the case in the past he greatly outpitched his peripherals.

Means also posted a FIP one full run inferior to his ERA at 4.62 while surrendering home runs at a subpar 1.84 HR/9 clip. The long ball is nothing new for a guy that owns a career 1.68 mark, but Means’ greatest asset is his control with a 1.60 BB/9 last season and a 1.84 career mark, making him one of the best pitchers in baseball in that department.

Means’ first start of the 2022 season came on the road, but he’ll look to fare better at home tonight after posting a 4.62 ERA at Camden Yards a season ago.

Offense

Brewers

The Brewers’ aren’t off to a great start at the plate this season after hanging around the bottom 10 at the plate a season ago.

In 2021, the Brewers finished 19th with a .310 wOBA at the plate, but for much of the season they were actually one of the better road offenses in baseball, eventually finishing in a tie for 12th with a .315 road wOBA alongside the Los Angeles Dodgers.

We’re just five games in, but the Brewers enter this one ranked 20th with a .293 wOBA on the young season and have hit for very little power with a .125 ISO that checks in at 19th league wide.

The club was essentially equal between lefties and righties last season, finishing 23rd with a .308 wOBA off left-handers such as Means, faring slightly better against right-handers in the process.

In true Jekyll and Hyde fashion, the Brewers have alternated being shutout and scoring five runs over their last four games after winning last night’s contest in Baltimore by a 5-4 count.

Orioles

The Orioles’ offense entered last season with very little expectations and more or less finished up where most thought they would.

The 2021 Orioles finished the season 24th with a .305 wOBA, but it was their work off left-handed pitching that helped inflate that figure. The O’s raked left-handers for a 12th-ranked .321 wOBA last season, but struggled mightily against righties in finishing 27th with a .296 wOBA.

The 2020 Orioles are off to a subpar start at the plate this season, sitting 21st with a .288 wOBA entering the final game of this three-game set. They scored a season-high four runs in last night’s loss, but scored just six runs across their first four games of the season with two runs or fewer scored in three of those four contests.

Things certainly do not get any easier with Burnes on the mound for the Crew tonight.

Bullpen

Brewers

It’s been a lights-out start to the season for the Brewers’ bullpen which is once again projected to be a major strength for this ball club.

It wasn’t a great start to the 2021 season for the club’s bullpen, but Milwaukee wound up finishing 14th with a 4.02 ERA. It’s still an underwhelming results for a group that was expected to be well within the league’s top 10, but so far this season they’ve put it together.

The group has come out of the gate with a 1.69 ERA/2.58 FIP across their first 21.1 innings on the season, once again posting big strikeout numbers with a 12.23 K/9 in the early going, the best mark in baseball at the moment.

The club’s bullpen is anchored by the Devin Williams/Josh Hader combo at the end of games with both pitchers combining for four innings of scoreless baseball so far this season.

Orioles

This is an area that needs to be far, far better for the ball club this season.

The 2021 Orioles bullpen was by far the worst in baseball from an ERA standpoint with a 5.70 mark that was about 3/4 of a run worse than the 5.08 figures put up by both the Nationals and D-backs.

Perhaps they deserved a better fate with a 4.87 FIP that’s much better than that ERA figure, but still finished last in baseball, as did their 1.47 HR/9 on the campaign.

It’s been so far, so good this season with a 2.22 ERA through 24.1 innings of work. They’ve yet to allow a homer in that time with a 2.96 BB/9 and a 2.23 FIP that supports the strong work to this point.

Betting Trends

Brewers

Brewers are 2-6 in their last eight games as a road favorite
Brewers are 51-23 in their last 74 following a win
Under is 3-0-1 in the Brewers’ last four interleague games
Over is 6-2-2 in the Brewers’ last 1o road games

Orioles

Orioles are 17-35 in their last 52 home games
Orioles are 2-6 in their last eight interleague games
Over is 4-0-1 in the Orioles’ last five home games
Under is 7-0-1 in the Orioles’ last eight interleague games

Expect this one to be a very difficult matchup for this Orioles’ offense.

An offense that was among the worst in baseball against right-handed pitching in baseball takes on the best right-handed pitcher in the game from a season ago. Like most clubs, the Orioles were a superior offense at home, but Burnes’ home/road splits were negligible last season and should, by all means, have his way in this one.

Not only that, but Burnes’ is backed by what should be one of the better bullpens in baseball this season. With a lead, the O’s should face Williams and Hader in this one despite both pitching in last night’s contest.

Once a very homer-friendly ball park, keep in mind the Orioles pushed their left-field fence back by 26 1/2 feet in the offseason while also raising the height of the wall from 7 feet, 4 inches to an even 13 feet. This will certainly curb the long balls to left, something to keep in mind throughout the season.

While Means had a fine start to his season, I’d be shocked if Burnes is out-dueled in this one, not to mention the bullpens later in the contest. I don’t see a ton of value in the moneyline, but I’ll look for this Brewers offense to offer enough run support to Burnes and give the club a run line victory tonight.

Brenton Kemp

Brenton is a lifelong sports fan who specializes in hockey and baseball as his main focus at GamlingSites.org. Brenton’s biggest goal is to deliver readers with the picks and advice that can build their bankroll. He takes great pride in his success and loves nothing more than to share that success for the benefit of everyone involved. …

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Author: wpadmin

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