Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets & Breakdowns

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MLB Logo Baseball Field

Along with my daily DraftKings MLB DFS Picks and game picks, I’ll be keeping the baseball content pumping with my top three player props.

If you indeed read my DraftKings pieces, you’ll often notice a link between some of the players there and the picks you find here. After all, if I’m using them at DraftKings I believe in their ability to produce in some or all of the hits, runs, RBIs, home runs and stolen base departments.

I will try and differentiate, however, not only to avoid repeating myself but to simply provide some greater coverage of the schedule on hand.

Let’s get to it!

*Odds courtesy of BetOnline

It’s a matchup of a couple of potential superstars tonight in Kansas City as Witt, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 draft, takes on Tigers right-hander Casey Mize, the No. 1 overall pick from the 2018 draft.

Mize was quite good in turning in a 3.71 ERA across 30 starts as a 23-year-old rookie last season. He is expected to take another leap forward this season and certainly has the stuff and make up to do so. However, Mize does have a couple factors at play we can exploit here.

For one, he still yielded 1.44 home runs per nine innings last season. Of pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched last season, that 1.44 HR/9 ranked 43rd of 55. In his first start of the 2022 season, Mize surrendered a two-run home run to the White Sox Yasmani Grandal.

While Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City suppresses home runs at a rate that makes it one of the worst venues in baseball for home runs, it’s one of the very best for doubles and triples. According to Baseball Savant, Kauffman Stadium owns a 116 metric for doubles and a 123 mark for triples, with 100 being average. In other words, this venue observes 16% more doubles and 23% more triples than the average ball park.

As for Witt Jr., he’s not exactly off to a scorching-hot start in going 2 for 20 (.100) across the first five games of his big league career. That being said, both of those knocks have been doubles even if he hasn’t found the seats yet. Witt’s sprint speed ranks in the league’s 98th percentile so far, as per Statcast, so he certainly has the ability to stretch long singles into doubles which is all we need for this prop.

Welcome to the show, @BwittJr. pic.twitter.com/cRErZ121Re

— MLB (@MLB) April 7, 2022

Witt hit 33 homers, 35 doubles and five triples across 123 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season. He’s got plenty of extra-base power, and he also hit .290 between the two levels with 144 hits in those 123 games.

Let’s see if he can have his breakout game tonight against the rival Tigers.

The Dodgers take on the Reds tonight at home and we don’t exactly have much of a pitching matchup to analyze as this is a bullpen game for the road side.

I will note that the Reds’ bullpen ranked 27th with a 4.99 ERA last season with a 1.45 HR/9 that tied for the second-highest homer rate in the bigs. Bullpen performances can certainly vary from year to year and the Reds’ bullpen owns a solid enough 3.95 ERA on the young season, but also a 26th-ranked 4.73 FIP and a 1.65 HR/9 that sits 27th league wide.

Furthermore, they own the second-lowest ground-ball rate at just 25.7% for the season.

Nonetheless, this simply has more to do with Turner than anything, although I do like the prospect of taking on this Reds ‘pen. A sexy MVP pick entering the season, Turner has yet to find a groove at the plate in the season’s very early stages.

In five games, Turner has gone just 5 for 21 (.238) with only two runs and three RBI. He has zero extra-base hits and his .278 xwOBA doesn’t exactly scream bad luck, either. Turner sits in the league’s 29th percentile in that department and also the 1st percentile in barrel rate as he’s yet to barrel a ball this season.

However, how long will this last? After all, Turner is the reigning NL batting champ after hitting .328 last season, and he hit .335 in the 2020 season. His 107 runs scored last season were the ninth-most in baseball and given his speed, he’s an annual threat to lead the league in that department.

Trea Turner is speed pic.twitter.com/bwV1HuahPS

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 10, 2022

The key for me is his spot in the loaded Dodgers batting order. Turner is hitting third behind Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, two on-base machines. He’s also hitting ahead of the likes of Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Will Smith and  Cody Bellinger, four extremely capable bats even before we get to Chris Taylor.

Given his position in the lineup, expect an improvement on his 77 RBI from last season while the runs should continue to come in bunches. With a .238 average so far, we can expect monstrous positive regression in that department moving forward.

This appears to be a matchup where Turner can deliver on that cross-category upside.

Once in a while I’ll throw in a home run prop for those in search of excess value, and Kris Bryant looks like a solid bet to play long ball tonight.

Should he do so, it would be the first of his career as a Rockie. Bryant has gone homerless in his first five games after rather surprisingly signing in Colorado as a free agent, but he’s not exactly cold entering this one.

Bryant has gone 7 for 20 (.350) with three doubles with his new club so far, posting a strong .344 xwOBA in the process. Bryant also sits in the league 66th percentile with a nice 11.8% barrel rate on the season, so his first homer shouldn’t be far off.

.@KrisBryant_23’s first in purple pins👏 pic.twitter.com/Zn01WEqYHT

— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) April 8, 2022

This would appear to be a fine matchup to do so in a launching pad of a venue. Of course, Coors Field in Colorado is easily the league’s hitter-friendliest venue. That right there is exciting enough for a player with his type of power.

The matchup tonight is against Cubs left-hander Justin Steele. For his part, Steele enjoyed a fine season-opening outing last week, but as a rookie last season he posted an ugly 1.89 HR/9 mark in 57 innings between the rotation and bullpen. In fairness, Steele did not have home run issues whatsoever in a lengthy minor-league career that began in 2014, but he did struggle with the long ball in his first taste of big-league action.

There’s also the fact that Bryant clobbers left-handed pitching. For his career, the 2016 NL MVP owns a .270 ISO off lefties compared to a .212 mark off righties. His .568 SLG off lefties is significantly superior to his .485 mark off righties. He’s hit a home run once in every 18.22 plate appearances versus lefties vs. once in every 25.2 plate appearances off righties.

Finally, Cubs relievers have combined for an elevated 1.35 HR/9 on the season as well as a 45.7% fly-ball rate that is the sixth-highest in baseball, a 41.3% hard-hit rate that is tied for 21st and an 8.7% barrel rate that’s tied for 17th.

Don’t be surprised to see the Rockies’ newest star notch his first homer in his new digs so dial up a bet on one of the best baseball online betting sites.

Brenton Kemp

Brenton is a lifelong sports fan who specializes in hockey and baseball as his main focus at GamlingSites.org. Brenton’s biggest goal is to deliver readers with the picks and advice that can build their bankroll. He takes great pride in his success and loves nothing more than to share that success for the benefit of everyone involved. …

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Author: wpadmin

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